The crypto market’s been enjoying a rare moment of calm, but that could all change in just eight days. Analysts at K33 are sounding the alarm: President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2, 2025, is shaping up to be a volatility bomb, thanks to his upcoming tariff announcement. With the clock ticking, the question on everyone’s mind is whether Trump tariffs will spark a rally, unleash chaos, or tank prices altogether. Here’s what’s at stake for Bitcoin and beyond.
Quiet Uptick Meets a Tariff Wildcard
Over the past few weeks, the crypto space has been riding a gentle upward wave. According to The Block’s Bitcoin Price page, Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed nearly 5%, flirting with the $88,000 mark. The GMCI 30 index, tracking the top cryptocurrencies, is up an even stronger 8.6% in the last seven days. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have raked in $896.6 million over an eight-day streak of net inflows—proof that selling pressure’s easing up, as K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman noted in their Tuesday report.
Add in Strategy’s hefty Bitcoin buys and a somewhat dovish Federal Reserve, and you’ve got a market catching its breath after a wild ride. “The worst of the de-risking in BTC seems behind us,” the analysts said. “Now, it’s a wait-and-see game.” But don’t get too cozy—those Trump tariffs are lurking just around the corner, ready to shake things up.
Why April 2 Could Be a Game-Changer
Mark your calendars: April 2 is Trump’s big “Liberation Day,” when he unveils his reciprocal tariff plans. K33 warns this could jolt both crypto and traditional markets out of their slumber. Right now, trading volumes are at a five-month low, leverage is tame, and Bitcoin’s hovering comfortably in the $80,000s. Traders aren’t taking chances—they’re playing it safe as the deadline nears.
Why the jitters? Tariffs have a knack for moving markets, and Trump’s track record proves it. Past tariff headlines have sent crypto prices on rollercoaster rides, and this time could be no different. “It’s shaping up to be a momentous day for volatility,” Lunde and Zimmerman said. Whether it’s a softening stance or a hardline crackdown, the outcome will ripple through exchanges and wallets alike.
Three Scenarios for Trump Tariffs and Crypto
So, what happens when Trump steps up to the podium? K33 lays out three possibilities:
- Soft Approach: If Trump dials back the tariff tough talk—as recent hints from his administration suggest—markets could cheer. A rally might push Bitcoin past $88,000 and lift altcoins along for the ride.
- Vague Signals: If he plays it coy, expect a volatility spike, leaving everyone guessing. Long and short positions could be hit as traders scramble to decode his next move.
- Hard Line: If Trump doubles with steep tariffs, brace for a drop. Past tariff shocks have triggered sharp declines, and crypto’s not immune. Goldman Sachs even flagged a “negative tariff surprise,” noting Trump’s habit of using trade as a bargaining chip.
The clues will start dropping soon. With eight days to go, every tweet, speech, or leak could nudge prices one way or another. For now, CME traders are staying cautious, while offshore players are dipping their toes into optimism, just not “full bull” yet.
What’s Next for Crypto Investors?
This isn’t crypto’s first tariff rodeo. In February and March, Trump’s flip-flopping on tariffs against China, Canada, and Mexico kept markets on edge. Now, with “Liberation Day” approaching, history might repeat itself—or take a wild new turn. The analysts see parallels to those earlier months if Trump keeps us in limbo with a back-and-forth approach.
